By Simon Johnson
STOCKHOLM (Reuters) – Sweden’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate by half a percentage point to 2.75% when it meets this week, aiming to boost the weak economy and keep inflation from undershooting the 2% target, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday.
An overwhelming majority of the 20 analysts in the poll saw a half point cut on Nov. 7 with just three expecting a more modest quarter-point move.
“The lack of signs of recovery should weigh on the decision of the Board … and lead to a proactive decision of a 50 basis point cut, bringing Riksbank to 2.75%,” Morgan Stanley said in a note.
At its September meeting, the third cut this year, the Riksbank said it expected further easing ahead. Quarter-point cuts are the main scenario, but Governor Erik Thedeen said a half-percentage point reduction was possible in either November or December.
Since then, the pace of inflation – which peaked at over 10% in late 2022 – has slowed to just 1.1% in September, while the economy has stuttered.
The gloomy outlook prompted Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson to warn last month there was a risk inflation would fall too low if the economy did not pick up speed.
Analysts envisaged the policy rate ending the year at 2.50% and hitting a low of 2.00% in mid-year 2025, though several said rates could fall faster.
Uncertainty is high, however.
The U.S. election on Nov. 5 casts a long shadow over the outlook with a victory by former President Donald Trump seen as having the biggest consequences for European economies and currencies.
Several analysts said a big sell-off in the Swedish crown if Trump wins could make the Riksbank more cautious. In the longer term, tariffs and the need to increase spending on defence if the U.S. steps back from NATO could lead to higher inflation.
Central banks are also moving in opposite directions with markets expecting fewer rate cuts in the United States and but more in the euro zone, leaving a difficult landscape for the Riksbank to navigate.
Sweden’s central bank will announce its rate decision at 0830 GMT on Nov. 7. It will not give any forecasts for rates or the economy this time, but Thedeen will give comments at 0900 GMT at a news conference.