Macquarie has reaffirmed its expectation that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will implement a single 25 basis points rate cut following the latest U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data.
The headline CPI in December remained robust, increasing by 0.4% month-over-month, influenced by strong food and energy prices, continuing an accelerating trend that has been observed since mid-2024.
In contrast, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed a softer increase of 0.23% month-over-month, marking the lowest reading since July.
This was considered a positive development by Macquarie, especially since core PPI subcomponents released earlier in the week had indicated a potential for a higher inflation reading. The year-over-year core CPI inflation rate held steady at 2.9%.
Macquarie analysts anticipate that the core Personal Expenditures (PCE) price index, a preferred inflation measure by the Federal Reserve, will likely mirror the core CPI’s recent performance.
They also expect core CPI inflation to moderate in the first quarter of the year, aided by favorable base effects and monthly core readings similar to those of December. However, they caution that threatened tariffs could pose an upside risk to inflation beyond the current forecast horizon.
The investment bank maintains that the FOMC is likely to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points only once more, predicting that the most probable timing for this action would be in March or May.
Macquarie also notes that the risks are tilted towards a later date for the rate cut.
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